MLB Opening Pitch: Odds, picks, predictions, preview for Monday 4/8

Phillies vs. Cardinals

Spencer Turnbull vs. Miles Mikolas

Spencer Turnbull showed promise at the major league level in 2021 (2.88 ERA, 3.08 xERA, 104 Stuff+) before Tommy John surgery ended that season prematurely and forced him to miss the entire 2022 season, too.

Turnbull struggled mightily in his return to the majors early last season and bounced between Triple-A and the IL over the final four months of 2023. Those results seemingly put his career in jeopardy.

However, the 31-year-old righty posted solid spring numbers and generated eye-opening pitch modeling metrics in his first start of 2024: 112 Stuff+, 112 Location+, and 107 Pitching+, compared to 98 Stuff+ last season in Detroit.

Turnbull's fastball velocity (91.5 mph) is significantly below both his 2023 average (93.1 mph) and career mark (93.9 mph).

Still, Turnbull has a trio of above-average offerings per Stuff+ (144 Changeup, 126 Curveball, 118 Slider) that he mixed in more than 50% of the time in his first start for the Phillies. And Turnbull's fastball usage in that outing (48.2%) represents a significant departure from his approach in years past (59.8% in 2023, 63.5% career).

I expect Turnbull to significantly out-pitch his projected FIP range (4.37-4.95) for as long as he remains healthy this season (he only surpassed 56 innings pitched once in his career, with 148 1/3 IP in 2019)

I view Turnbull as a better pitcher than Miles Mikolas (5.44 xERA, 4.76 xFIP in 2023; projected FIP range of 4.51 to 4.73 for 2024). I also strongly prefer the Phillies' position player group, projecting them as the better defensive team and more productive lineup – by about eight points in terms of a team wRC+ projection against right-handed pitching.

I projected the Phillies as -115 favorites (53.7% implied) for the first five innings (F5) and as -109 (52.3% implied) favorites for the full game on Monday; bet those lines to -107 (51.7% implied), and -101 (50.3% implied) respectively – with either wager representing an edge of at least two percent compared to my projected line.

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies

Zac Gallen vs. Kyle Freeland

Despite solid results through his first two starts of the season (combined 11 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 5 BB, 9 K), Zac Gallen has some red flags in his profile.

Gallen's velocity is down significantly (from 93.6 mph to 92 mph), and his pitch modeling metrics are in freefall  106 Stuff+, 104 Location+ in 2023; 87 Stuff+, 100 Location+ in 2024.

It's a limited sample, to be sure, but Gallen's first-pitch strike rate and overall zone percentages are down significantly. He's generating fewer chases and whiffs and permitting more contact on pitches inside the strike zone. He's also benefitted from a pair of friendly umpires, netting seven called strikes on pitches outside the zone. And visually, he's a mess – consistently missing his spots and falling behind hitters.

Gallen faces one of his previous opponents—the Rockies—for the second time already this season. He's performed exceptionally well at Coors Field throughout his career (37 IP, 2.43 ERA, 29 H, 5 BB, 40 K).

Gallen is a brilliant pitcher with a great feel. He can continue to have success at the MLB level even with reduced stuff, similar to Shane Bieber in the past few seasons after winning his Cy Young (velocity dropped from 94.2 mph in 2020 to 92.8 mph in 2021 to 91.4 mph in 2022 and 2023 – but Bieber averaged a 3.22 ERA and 3.26 xFIP over 425 innings from 2021 to 2023).

Still, unless he reverses this velocity and Stuff+ decline, Gallen's profile is a ticking time bomb, and he's due for some blowups shortly. Five offerings graded out above 100 Stuff+ last season, but only his cutter (105 Stuff+ in his last start) has surpassed that threshold, two starts into 2024.

Oddly, Kyle Freeland has seen a significant velocity uptick (91.7 mph, up from 88.8 mph in 2023). Still, he remains buried on the Stuff+ leaderboards (74 Stuff+, 94 Location+), with his best offering (83 Stuff+ on his sinker) well below average. Despite the velocity gains, I'll continue to rate Freeland as one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB (5.70 xERA, 5.13 xFIP in 2023; projected FIP range of 5.15 to 5.46 for 2024).

I set Monday's total in Colorado at 11.6 runs. You can find some 10.5s below the key number, but I would bet Over 11 to -112.

Bet: Over 11 (-112 or better)

Rays vs. Angels

Zach Eflin vs. Tyler Anderson

I project a significant difference in talent between Zach Eflin and Tyler Anderson; as many as 1.5 runs on a season-long ERA.

Eflin was one of the most underrated pitchers in 2023 (3.02 xERA, 3.12 xFIP across 177 2/3 innings) while displaying impeccable command over a vast, six-pitch arsenal.

Projections place Eflin between a 3.43 and 3.66 FIP for 2024.

Tyler Anderson was much worse than Eflin last season (4.96 xERA, 5.52 xFIP across 141 innings), and his 2024 projections are in replacement-level territory (projected FIP range of 4.50 to 5.07).

Tampa Bay's offense projects better against lefties than righties: Yandy Diaz (158 wrC+ vs. lefties since 2022), Harold Ramirez (148), Randy Arozarena (150), Isaac Paredes (128), Amed Rosario (126), and Jose Caballero (126) present a formidable test for any southpaw, despite minimal name recognition outside of Arozarena. Diaz was voted the most underrated player in baseball by his peers.

Anderson struggled to turn over the lineup multiple times in his only start against the Rays last season (4 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 3 K), and he will face six or seven of the same hitters again on Monday.

Eflin pitched exceptionally well against the Angels last season (combined 11 IP, 10 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 14 K), but he also avoided Mike Trout in both starts; Brandon Drury, Zack Neto, and Logan O'Hoppe are the only carry-overs from last season.

Regardless of those past head-to-head performances, I projected the Rays as -145 favorites in the first half behind Eflin. Bet that line to -135, and we'll avoid the potential Coors Field hangover from the Tampa Bay bullpen.

Bet: Rays F5 ML (-135 or better)

Zerillo's Bets for Monday, April 8

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• Arizona Diamondbacks / Colorado Rockies, Over 10.5 (-115, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to 11, -112)
• Houston Astros F5 (-130, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -130)
• Philadelphia Phillies F5 (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -107)
• Philadelphia Phillies (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -101)
• Tampa Bay Rays F5 (-128, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -135)