MLB Opening Pitch: Sean Zerillo's picks, odds and predictions for Tuesday 4/9

Tigers vs. Pirates

Tuesday, April 9, 12:35 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Casey Mize vs. Martin Perez

Despite permitting three runs in 4 1/3 innings, Casey Mize was rather impressive in his 2024 debut against the Mets.

Coming off of Tommy John surgery, the former No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft showed a career-best 95 mph fastball and posted an eye-popping 120 Stuff+ figure (173 Splitter, 136 curveball, 105 Fastball, 97 Slider) alongside excellent command (111 Location+) — even better numbers than he posted during a promising spring (108 Stuff+, 100 Location+).

Perhaps Mize hasn't fully optiMIZED (I'm so sorry) his arsenal; he threw the slider — which grades out as the worst of his four offerings — one-third of the time (up from 23% career), but he did press on that nasty splitter frequently (24%) too.

Based on a 39-start sample before this season, Mize is likely severely under-projected (projected FIP range of 4.51 to 4.73) for 2024. The pitch modeling metrics from his most recent outing indicate that Mize — who appeared to be a potential bust a couple of years ago — seemingly has ace potential once again.

Martin Perez (projected FIP range of 4.21 to 4.86) is a known commodity with a more limited range of outcomes. The veteran lefty posted a 4.90 ERA and 4.96 xFIP last season, owns a 4.67 ERA and 4.65 xFIP through two starts this year, and has a career 4.42 ERA, 4.41 FIP and 4.50 xFIP.

I have upgraded my priors on Mize — relative to a week ago — and project as much as a full run differential between these starting pitchers on a season-long ERA.

I set the Tigers as -114 favorites (53.2% implied odds) for the first five innings (F5). Bet their F5 moneyline to -105 (51.2% implied) at a 2% edge compared to my projected odds, and consider adding Detroit's F5 spread (+0.5 runs) up to -145.

I set the full-game projection at -101 (50.2% implied) and would bet the Tigers' moneyline at +108 (48.2% implied) or better.

Bet: Tigers F5 ML (-105 or better) | Tigers F5 +0.5 (-145 or better) | Tigers ML (+110 or better)

Orioles vs. Red Sox

Tuesday, April 9, 2:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Corbin Burnes vs. Brayan Bello

Despite a solid start to his tenure in Baltimore, Corbin Burnes has gone away from the sweeper that saved his 2023 season.

Burnes posted a 4.10 ERA, 4.23 xFIP and 14.2% K-BB rate through June of last season while using a traditional slider (107 Stuff+). On July 14, he debuted a new sweeper (177 Stuff+) and pitched significantly better in the second half of the season (2.71 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 20.7% K-BB%).

Burnes posted 119 Stuff+, 101 Location+, and 104 Pitching+ during the first half of the 2023 season and increased those ratings to 137, 103, and 109 in the second half.

His early 2024 results (112 Stuff+) — while returning to the traditional slider (104 Stuff+) — align much more closely with last season's first half.

Burnes still has five above-average offerings per Stuff+, his velocity has held up and he'll continue to be an effective pitcher whether he uses a slider or a sweeper. Still, it's confounding why he would move away from potentially his most dominant offering.

Brayan Bello has shown improvement this season for the Red Sox. The 24-year-old righty moved away from his four-seamer (career 19.2% usage) and is focusing on a three-pitch mix (sinker, changeup, slider).

Bello is throwing his slider harder (up from 85.3 to 87.9 mph), and the Stuff+ rating on the pitch has improved from 103 to 125, bringing his overall profile (99 Stuff+, 100 Location+) closer to the league average (90 Stuff+ in 2023).

I projected the Red Sox as slight +104 underdogs (48.9% implied) in their home opener. Bet Boston at +114 or better.

Bet: Red Sox ML (+114 or better)

Brewers vs. Reds

Tuesday, April 9, 6:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Joe Ross vs. Frankie Montas

While 2024 projections show a similar range of outcomes for Frankie Montas (projected range of 4.42 to 4.70) and Joe Ross (projected range of 4.51 to 5.05), pitch modeling metrics show that Montas (107 Stuff+) is closer to his peak form (4.00 xERA, 3.61 xFIP in his last healthy season in 2022), while Ross (86 Stuff+) was unimpressive in his first MLB outing since 2021.

Still, although I give Montas — and the Reds — the clear edge in the starting pitching matchup, I view a similar advantage for Milwaukee's bullpen against Cincinnati by roughly a half run on a season-long ERA.

Brewers relievers have posted a combined 111 Stuff+ and 102 Location+ this season, compared to marks of 98 for Cincinnati's relievers in both categories.

As a result, my projections align with the F5 market (projected +141), but I see value in the Brewers' full-game line (projected +117), with the vastly superior bullpen down to +127.

Bet: Brewers ML (+127 or better)

Nationals vs. Giants

Tuesday, April 9, 9:45 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Josiah Gray vs. Kyle Harrison 

It's always a red flag for me when a top prospect is traded multiple times in the minor leagues.

Josiah Gray was initially dealt from the Reds to the Dodgers in a package for Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood and Matt Kemp — and was subsequently traded to the Nationals in a package for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer.

Aside from a decent strikeout rate (22.5% career), Gray's MLB tenure has been rather abysmal (career 4.84 ERA, 5.51 FIP, 4.90 xFIP in 73 starts and 386 2/3 innings).

And there are no signs of life in his pitch modeling metrics this season (82 Stuff+, down from 88 in 2023).

Conversely, Kyle Harrison has solid command and a high floor despite mediocre stuff (95 Stuff+ in 2023; 90 in 2024).

Harrison relies heavily on his four-seamer (60+% usage) and generates a ton of fly balls (53.1% career), but he's in a perfect home environment. Oracle Park has the lowest Park Factor for home runs (80; 20% below league average) over the past three seasons, although it's slightly better for right-handed bats (82) than lefties (78).

And I don't think it's any coincidence that Harrison has performed significantly better at home (.275 wOBA, 2.66 ERA, 2.3% HR rate) than on the road (.397 wOBA, 5.68 ERA, 8.4% HR rate).

Harrison's projected 2024 FIP range is between 4.21 and 4.48, while Gray's forecast is between 4.93 and 5.43. I like Harrison at the more optimistic end of his projections and view Gray towards the more pessimistic side of his range.

As a result, on a season-long ERA, I see as much as a full run differential between these two starting pitchers.

I projected the Giants as -196 F5 favorites and would bet their first-half moneyline to -180. I'd want -172 or better to play their full-game moneyline (projected -187).

Bet: Giants F5 ML (-180 or better) | Giants ML (-172 or better)

Zerillo's Bets for Tuesday, April 9

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• Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (-170, Risk 0.5u) at Draftkings (bet to -175)
• Arizona Diamondbacks / Colorado Rockies, Over 11 (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to 11.5, -108)
• Boston Red Sox (+119, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +114)
• Baltimore Orioles / Boston Red Sox, Over 8 (-105, 0.5u) at DraftKings (Bet to -110)
• Chicago Cubs (+140, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +125)
• Detroit Tigers F5 (+105, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -105)
• Detroit Tigers F5 +0.5 (-130, 0.25u) at DraftKings (bet to -145)
• Detroit Tigers (+114, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +110)
• Houston Astros / Kansas City Royals, Over 8.5 (-108, 0.5u) at DraftKings bet to -110)
• Milwaukee Brewers (+135, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to +127)
• New York Mets / Atlanta Braves, Under 10 (-115, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -120 or 9.5, -101)
• San Francisco Giants F5 (-166, 0.5u) at FanDuel bet to -180)
• San Francisco Giants (-163, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to -170)
• Texas Rangers F5 (-198, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -200)