Why Guardians’ Shane Bieber is going to have 2024 Cy Young season

First of all, and this is a big reason, but Bieber’s velocity has seen an increase in spring training. That’s a sign that he’s healthy and feeling good ahead of the new campaign.

If he can average over 94 MPH on his fastball, Bieber will be able to generate more swings and misses on all of his pitches. It will cause hitters to be off-balance on his breaking stuff.

Bieber is at his best when he is striking out hitters at a consistent rate. On Sunday, the Guardians ace finished 5.2 innings of one-run baseball in a 4-2 victory over the Cincinnati Reds. He also struck out eight hitters during that span, per the Guardians.

The 28-year-old is ready for Opening Day to say the least.

But there’s more than just improved velocity to be excited about. Shane Bieber pitched a 3.80 ERA across 21 starts in 2023. Bieber was fairly unlucky, though.

He recorded a .295 BABip (batting average on balls in play) in 2023, per Baseball Reference. When opponents put the ball in play, they almost hit .300. As a result, opposing hitters slashed .253/.303/.406/.709 against Bieber, all of which were some of the higher marks of the Guardians star’s career.

Bieber should be able to bounce back and limit opposing batters. After all, batters have hit just .236/.282/.381/.663 against Bieber during his career.

Shane Bieber also recorded the lowest strikeout rate of his career in 2023. He recorded strikeouts just 20.1 percent of the time, which was well behind the second lowest mark of his career (24.3 percent) which came during his rookie season in 2018. The improved velocity is going to help Shane Bieber return to a figure around his career average (27.8 percent) in 2024.

Finally, there weren’t many other reasons to be concerned in 2023. Bieber’s home run and walk rates were not much different than his career averages. Sure, he surrendered a bit more hard contact last year, but all of the signs are indicating that he will be able to limit that concern.

Shane Bieber’s Guardians future

Assuming Bieber finds his Cy Young form again, which I believe he will, the question then becomes whether the Guardians will trade him or not.

Cleveland has not been linked to a Bieber contract extension. They will not want to lose him in free agency for nothing more than a draft pick, but the Guardians may be able to compete in 2024.

Cleveland will assess the situation before the 2024 trade deadline. If the ball club is out of contention, it would not be surprising to see Bieber end up getting traded to a contender. If the Guardians are competing for either an AL Wild Card spot or the AL Central division title, then Bieber will probably remain in Cleveland.

And if our prediction comes true, he will win his second AL Cy Young award with the Guardians.