A way-too-early AFC East projection after Stefon Diggs trade from Buffalo

The Buffalo Bills have won the AFC East four consecutive seasons, but it appears their grip on the division could loosen in 2024. 

On Wednesday, news broke that the Bills traded star wideout Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. That, along with several salary-cap casualties including wide receiver Gabe Davis, safety Jordan Poyer and others, means Buffalo could be significantly weakened for next season.

Here's a way-too-early look at how this fascinating division might shake out in wake of the news of Diggs' departure.

1. New York Jets | 2023: 7-10, third in division

The last time the Jets won the AFC East was 2002, the first year of the division's current format, and they haven't made the playoffs since the 2010 season, the longest postseason drought in any major North American sports league.

Both droughts, however, could end this season.

Despite little to no help from the offense after QB Aaron Rodgers suffered a torn Achilles in the first game of 2023, the defense finished in the top three in many metrics last year, including DVOA. There's no reason to project regression in that area.

As for the offense, better health will be required, most notably from Rodgers himself. However, even a league-average unit could see these Jets become contenders due to the strength of their defense.

If veteran newcomers such as offensive tackle Tyron Smith and wideout Mike Williams stay healthy, the Jets should at least be a playoff contender.

2. Miami Dolphins | 2023: 11-6, second

There may be a new division leader in our projections, but the Dolphins are still stuck in the very familiar No. 2 spot.

Miami's defense has yet to put in a good performance against a top offense, and the offense has a tendency to disappear in cold weather and in big moments.

Miami made notable defensive additions this offseason, including linebackers Jordyn Brooks and Shaquil Barrett and safety Poyer, and it would be nearly impossible for it to have worse health along the offensive line than in 2023.

Miami isn't flawless, but this could be the year the Dolphins take the leap. 

3. Buffalo Bills | 2023: 11-6, first

Yes, the Bills could really fall all the way to third.

With Diggs (1,187 yards receiving, eight touchdown catches in 2023) and Davis (746 receiving yards, seven touchdown catches) gone, it's hard to see how star quarterback Josh Allen pulls off another dominant stretch to end the season.

The defense, which improved throughout the season in 2023, lost cornerback Tre'Davious White to the Rams and Poyer to the Dolphins in free agency.

We already saw vulnerability from Buffalo last season when it barely won the division via tiebreakers. After salary-cap troubles forced the Bills to move on from so many important players, they should experience a full step back in 2024, perhaps even missing the playoffs for the first time since the 2018 season.

4. New England Patriots | 2023: 4-13, fourth

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. 

In 2023, the Jets snapped a 15-game losing streak against the Patriots, who may be stuck in mediocrity for quite awhile. 

New England, which finished 8-9 in 2022, moved on from 2021 first-round pick Mac Jones, dealing the quarterback to Jacksonville to back up Trevor Lawrence. The Patriots presumably will be breaking in another rookie starter at QB this season. 

The offensive skill group is nearly devoid of starter-level players, and while the defense has talent, including edge-rusher Matthew Judon and cornerback Christian Gonzalez, the unit will likely take a step back with legendary head coach Bill Belichick gone.