AFC Super Wild Card Weekend predictions: Dolphins sink in sub-freezing weather

In Super Wild Card Weekend, the Chiefs' Super Bowl title defense begins while the Bills, Browns and Texans aim to advance to their first SB championship. The Steelers and Dolphins, meanwhile, face daunting tasks on the road. Below are AFC playoff predictions for the wild-card round.

Cleveland Browns (11-6) at Houston Texans (10-7) | Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, NBC

The Browns dominated the Texans in a 36-22 victory in Week 16. However, Houston rookie quarterback CJ Stroud was sidelined with a concussion. On Tuesday, Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski indicated he'll make an impact in the rematch, calling his tape "awesome."

Meanwhile, Browns QB Joe Flacco's ability to deliver in road playoff games could give his team an edge. Per Tom Withers of the Associated Press, he has won seven games on the road in the postseason, tied with future Hall of Famer Tom Brady for the most in league history.

As of Thursday, FanDuel lists Cleveland as a two-point favorite. But don't be surprised if Stroud helps the Texans pull off an upset. In 15 games this season, he joined HOFer Joe Montana and Brady as the only QBs to lead the league in passing yards per game and touchdown-to-interception ratio, per the team website.

PREDICTION: Texans 28-24

Miami Dolphins (11-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) | Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, Peacock

According to The Weather Channel, the temperature for this game will plunge to -7 degrees. Miami has lost 10 straight games when the kickoff temperature is 40 degrees or below, per CBS Sports. Chiefs HC Andy Reid downplayed the cold-weather advantage.

"You can't bank on that. That's where you get into trouble," Reid told the media Tuesday. "We're not having a snowball fight."

Regardless, expect the Dolphins to flop. Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa – who will be making his postseason debut – has struggled in his past three games, completing 61.8% of his passes while throwing for four TDs and four interceptions. K.C.'s defense has allowed 49 points over its past three games, the third fewest in the league.  

PREDICTION: Chiefs 24-19

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at Buffalo Bills (11-6) | Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Steelers HC Mike Tomlin announced Tuesday star pass-rusher T.J. Watt (knee) won't play this weekend, a massive blow for Pittsburgh. The 2021 Defensive Player of the Year led the league in sacks during the regular season (19 in 17 games).

Steelers QB Mason Rudolph will make his fourth consecutive start. Over his past three games, the 28-year-old is 3-0, completing 74.6% of his passes for 716 yards, three TDs and no interceptions.

While Rudolph provides an offensive spark, the Steelers upsetting the Bills – who have won five straight – seems unlikely. As of Thursday, FanDuel lists Buffalo as a 10-point favorite.

PREDICTION: Bills 23-20