NFL Betting: The case for the Over on the Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts finished 9-8 last season, which when you think about it is pretty amazing given they had a new coach (first-time head coach Shane Steichen) and a rookie quarterback who was quickly injured for the season (No. 4 pick Anthony Richardson).

Yet in year two with this duo, the market is saying reaching that same win total is unlikely, I am not sure I agree with that opinion.

Here is why.

Indianapolis Colts Over 8.5 Wins (+110)

They Might Have Been More Lucky Than Good Last Season

When you finish with a winning record, you are supposed to score more points than you allow, right? That was not the case with the Colts last season. If you believe that luck can only take you so far then this would be a season where improvement steps in and replaces some of that. As I will get into below, there are lots of reasons to lean into the Colts' improvement in many critical areas this season. 

Flacco vs. Minshew

When you have a rookie quarterback and want to be competitive, you need to have a quality backup. Last year, that guy was Gardner Minshew for Indianapolis and he played much more than expected. Minshew Mania is long gone though and this season the "break in case of emergency guy" is even more experienced Joe Flacco, who proved last season with Cleveland that if you give him enough support he is still a viable option. This is an upgrade if Richardson is hurt again or is not up to the task. 

More JTT (Jonathan Taylor Tailback)

You can debate the value of running backs in the NFL in a lot of ways. They mean different things to different teams though, and in the case of the Colts, Jonathan Taylor is their best playmaker. Even though he missed seven games and had fewer carries than Zack Moss he led the team in touchdowns. A full season of health and availability should mean more consistent offensive production for Indianapolis and that is always a good thing for a team looking for more wins. 

Maturity and Development

Going into last season, you would have thought a lot would have to go right for them to win nine games. Instead, it was the opposite, so much went wrong, and they hit that win total anyway. I am not saying this team is a Super Bowl contender in 2024, especially in the AFC, but things could have really gone off the rails last season, and they didn't. Now the coach and the quarterback have more experience in their roles and everything feels a little more stable.