Sean Payton reveals whether Broncos are considering big draft move

Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton hasn't ruled out moving up in the NFL Draft.

"I think that's realistic. What's hard to predict though is what's on the receiving end," Payton said Monday, via Mike Klis of KUSA-TV in Denver. 

"I think it's good to be [Cardinals general manager] Monti (Ossenfort) today at Arizona. It's hard to predict what that cost is, and yet I wouldn't say it's unrealistic."

The Broncos have the 12th overall pick in the draft, while the Cardinals have the fourth pick. Ossenfort recently admitted they're open to trading it.

Pro Football Talk's Michael David Smith suggested Denver could offer to the Cardinals a similar package to the one the San Francisco 49ers used to move up from No. 12 to No. 3 to select quarterback Trey Lance in 2021. In this hypothetical deal, the Broncos would trade the 12th pick, a 2025 first- and third-rounder and a 2026 first-rounder.

If Denver moved up in the draft, it might target Michigan's J.J. McCarthy. 

Per Klis, Payton said he recently held a private workout with the national champion and "spent four to five hours with him."

Denver should exercise caution, however. The Broncos dealt three first-round picks (and more) for QB Russell Wilson and Payton in 2022 and 2023, hampering their ability to build a strong roster.

First-round trades for QBs often fail. Since 2016, there have been 14 trades for a QB in the first round, per The Athletic. Eight of these passers failed to win a playoff game. Lance completed 54.9 percent of his passes in eight games with the Niners before they dealt him to the Dallas Cowboys in 2023.  

In 2023 for Denver, Jarrett Stidham completed 60.6 percent of his passes in two starts, below the league average (64.5 percent), so clearly the Broncos need a QB. In his latest mock draft, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. has the Broncos selecting 2023 Heisman finalist Bo Nix (Oregon) with their pick in the first round.

If Payton wants to move up to take a QB, he better not miss. Otherwise, he and the Broncos should stand pat.