The cold truth: What previous wintry-weather playoff games tell us about Dolphins' chances

In a wild-card game Saturday night at 8 ET, the battered Miami Dolphins (11-6) will play at the Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) in what is expected to be one of the coldest games in NFL history. With a laundry list of injuries and an underwhelming finish to the regular season, the Dolphins — a 4.5-point underdog, per FanDuel as of Thursday — seem to have slim hopes of winning. Playoff history, however, suggests there is room for optimism.

The five coldest games in NFL playoff history are as follows: Cowboys-Packers (1967), Chargers-Bengals (1981-82), Seahawks-Vikings (2015-16), Giants-Packers (2007-08) and Raiders-Bills (1993-94). Based on the stats and storylines from these games, here are reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic about Miami's chances: 

Optimist

Running the ball will be key: Among the five coldest matchups in league history, the higher-ranked rushing offense between teams prevailed in all but one of them, with the "Freezer Bowl'' being the lone exception. Even so, running the ball effectively was still a major factor in that game, with the victorious Bengals outrushing the Chargers 143 yards to 128. This should bode well for the Dolphins, considering they finished sixth in rushing yards and first in touchdowns rushing. The Chiefs, meanwhile, ranked 19th and 26th in those respective categories. 

The odds of a close game are higher than not: Although Miami is severely undermanned, our five-game sample size suggests it can keep things competitive against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Four of the five coldest playoff games of all time were decided by one score, with the Chargers-Bengals AFC Championship Game standing out once again, as Cincinnati won convincingly 27-7. It's also worth noting that Miami's Week 9 loss to Kansas City in Germany ended with a score of 21-14.

A common trend among winning defenses: Every team that won its cold-weather playoff matchup ranked inside the top 10 in either yardage or points allowed during that particular season. The Dolphins' late-season skid undermined their defense's scoring ranking, but the team still managed to finish 10th in yards per game allowed (318.3). Obviously, since Miami's unit is so banged up, it probably won't live up to its season ranking, but it still turned in a commendable performance in its 21-14 Week 18 loss to the high-powered Bills. 

Road teams are on a heater: The Dolphins are a different team when they aren't playing at Hard Rock Stadium, posting a mediocre 4-4 record on the road this season and a 7-10 record in away games overall under HC Mike McDaniel. This might be a cause for concern, but entering a hostile environment didn't matter for the 2007 Giants and 2015 Seahawks, the winners of the two most recent games we're using for our comparison.

Pessimist

Home teams have had the edge: While the visitors won the two most recent frigid playoff games, having home-field advantage has historically given teams the upper hand, with the 1967 Packers, 1981 Bengals and 1993 Bills each handling business at home. Despite the fact that the 2007 Giants and 2015 Seahawks won on the road, they were not easy victories. New York needed overtime and a Brett Favre interception before making the winning field goal. Meanwhile, the Seahawks survived against the Vikings thanks to a missed potential go-head 27-yard chip shot by Blair Walsh with just seconds remaining. 

No team pulled out a win after losing the previous game: Miami's Week 18 loss to the Bills might be a cautionary sign, given that every team that won the current five coldest games in playoff history came into the matchup off a win. Of course, for 1967 Packers, 1981 Bengals and 2007 Giants, there was no other way for this to be the case since their wins took place in the second round of the playoffs or later. Nonetheless, wins by the 1993 Bills and 2015 Seahawks came in their first playoff game during those seasons after they dominated in their regular-season finales. Seattle throttled the Arizona Cardinals 36-6, and Buffalo crushed the Indianapolis Colts 30-10.

The Dolphins have difficulty adapting to the cold: Based on both team name and location, it's not surprising Miami struggles with cold weather, but its recent record in poor climates suggests it might as well already start planning for the offseason. According to Stathead, the Dolphins haven't won a single one of their last 10 games when the temperature was below 40 degrees, with their last win under such conditions coming in 2016. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 9-1 in their past 10 home games when the temperature was below 40 degrees, including 4-0 in the postseason, per CBS Sports. 

In the end, it's all about having the better defense: Even though each winner's defense ranked inside the top 12 in scoring and yardage, some of the losers had stout units of their own. But ultimately, the more talented group came out on top. Every victor outranked the loser in points or yards allowed entering their respective meetings, with the 1967 Packers, 1993 Bengals and 2015 Seahawks topping their opponents in both departments. This could prove to be another advantage for the Chiefs, whose defense ranks second in points (294) and yards (4,926) allowed.