A deep dive into Boston Bruins salary-cap situation

Swayman’s contract was one of the more interesting ones signed this summer.  He had a very strong year, posting a 2.27 GAA along with a .920 SV% but in just 37 games.  For his career, he has just 87 career appearances which isn’t a large sample size to work off of.  A multi-year deal would likely have cost upwards of $4.5M per year, a sum they simply couldn’t have afforded with their current roster.  Instead, the sides went to arbitration to get this deal.  Another year somewhat similar to this one could push his single-year value into the $4.5M range – even as a platoon goalie – while a longer-term agreement could push closer to the $6MM mark.

Signed through 2024-25

F Patrick Brown ($800K, UFA)
F Trent Frederic ($2.3M, UFA)
F Morgan Geekie ($2M, RFA)
F Brad Marchand ($6.125M, UFA)
G Linus Ullmark ($5M, UFA)

Marchand’s production isn’t where it was at his peak anymore but he was still close to a point per game last season.  Without his long-time linemate Patrice Bergeron, it will be interesting to see how that affects his output but Marchand should still provide positive value on the final two years of his deal.  He’ll be 37 when his next contract begins and it wouldn’t be surprising if he takes another team-friendly pact again.  Frederic took a step forward last season, providing Boston with some good secondary production despite having a limited role, allowing him to more than double the AAV of his previous contract.  He’ll need to maintain that at a minimum while moving up the lineup to push up his price tag again in two years.

Geekie came over after being somewhat surprisingly non-tendered by Seattle.  He’ll have a chance to play a bit higher in the lineup with Boston’s turnover down the middle and if he can hold down the third-line center role, this should be a good pickup for them.  Notably, he’ll still have another year of control through arbitration if things go well.  Brown came over in free agency after splitting last season between Philadelphia and Ottawa.  He’s a serviceable checker on the fourth line without providing much offense so future deals for him should come in close to the minimum as well.

Ullmark had an incredible season last year.  He blew past his full-season career bests in GAA (2.45) and SV% (.917) by putting up 1.89 and .938 respectively in those categories.  Wins and losses certainly aren’t everything for a goalie but he had 40 victories in 48 starts, a win rate that is quite difficult to come by.  That made him a well-deserving recipient of the Vezina Trophy while making mid-tier starter money.  Few are expecting a performance like this in 2023-24 but even if he goes back to his career averages, they’ll get good value here.

Signed through 2025-26

F Charlie Coyle ($5.25M, UFA)

Coyle has been a secondary producer for the majority of his career, even coming back to his time with Minnesota.  That made this contract a bit on the high side when it was signed back in 2019.  However, he’s coming off back-to-back years with more than 40 points and has moved back to primarily playing at center after splitting the previous few seasons between center and the wing.  The full-time position switch helps the value.  So do the departures of Bergeron and David Krejci as it will push Coyle into a more prominent role offensively.  As long as that results in an uptick in production – a reasonable expectation – the return on the second half of this contract should be a bit better than the first half.

Signed through 2026-27 or longer

D Brandon Carlo ($4.1M through 2026-27)
D Hampus Lindholm ($6.5M through 2029-30)
D Charlie McAvoy ($9.5M through 2029-30)
F David Pastrnak ($11.25M through 2030-31)
F Pavel Zacha ($4.75M through 2026-27)

Pastrnak had a dominant performance last season, scoring 61 goals while averaging at least a point per game for the fifth straight season.  That put him in the driver’s seat when it came to negotiating an early extension in-season, one that immediately became the richest deal in franchise history.  It’s hard for a player making that much to live up to the contract but he’ll be the go-to player in Boston for a long time.  Zacha’s contract is on the pricey side based on his career numbers but he had a breakout performance in 2022-23, notching 57 points.  Like Coyle, he’ll be asked to play a bigger role this year and if there’s an uptick offensively as a result, this will become a team-friendly deal.

McAvoy has emerged as a legitimate top-pairing defenseman who is above-average at the offensive end.  Those players get paid quickly and he was no exception as he now sits tied for fourth in the NHL in AAV among blueliners.  That’s a hard contract to live up to but the Bruins are banking that he has another gear to get to yet.  Lindholm found a gear offensively that he never could reach with Anaheim, becoming an ideal top-pairing fit in the process.  There’s some concern about how the deal might age as he’ll be out of his prime by then but that’s a problem for down the road, not now.  Carlo is a capable defensive defenseman but his ideal role is a fourth or fifth defender who can kill penalties.  With minimal offensive contributions, it’s a deal that’s above market value at this point.

Buyouts

D Mike Reilly ($333K in 2023-24, $1.33M in 2024-25)

Retained salary transactions

None

Still-to-sign

None

Best Value: Shattenkirk
Worst Value: Carlo

Looking ahead

The bonus carryover penalties from Bergeron and Krejci’s deals cut into Boston’s cap space by $4.5M.  They’re unlikely to afford a full-sized roster to start the season but if they want to get creative, they might be able to waive someone like Forbort and shuffle him back and forth, freeing up a pro-rated $1.15M for each day he’s off the roster.  That could give them some extra space to hedge against injuries but if they want to add to their group this season, it’s going to be a money-in, money-out situation barring LTIR for someone coming into play.

Fortunately for the Bruins, the cap challenges could be short-lived.  With over $20M coming off the books next summer plus the carryover charge being cleared (aside from potentially Lucic’s half-million), Sweeney should have ample flexibility to re-sign his core pieces and then try to add one either via trade or in free agency.  Meanwhile, at the moment, there are just six players signed for the 2025-26 campaign, giving Boston a relatively clean canvas to work with for the future.