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Australian Open best bets: Who do we like besides the Joker?
Novak Djokovic of Serbia. Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports

Australian Open best bets: Who do we like besides the Joker?

Welcome to the 2024 tennis season! We’re kicking off as always with the hardcourt Happy Slam: the Australian Open in Melbourne.

For those of you who are new to tennis, welcome. For those of you who have been around a while, you know exactly why tennis is such an intoxicating sell: It’s a mental battle as much as a physical one. It’s two people, all alone in front of thousands, battling their darkest impulses in the sunshine. It’s id, ego and superego. It’s your favorite sportsman’s favorite sport. It’s epic.

The Australian Open is the first Grand Slam of the season (the others are the French Open, Wimbledon and the U. S. Open). It’s the best-attended Grand Slam of the four, with close to a million fans likely to pass through Melbourne Park’s gates before the men’s finals on Jan. 28. Australia’s balmy summer temperatures make the Open a gorgeous respite in the middle of a cold, slushy Northern Hemisphere January.

While the Australian Open is the "unofficial" kickoff of the tennis calendar, plenty of games have already been played — most of them also in the Southern Hemisphere. The Brisbane International just wrapped up last week, and the ASB Classic closed just a few short days ago. Lots of the betting narratives of the Australian Open will center around those early tournaments: who played in them, who played well in them, who might be tired, and who skipped them altogether and might need extra time to warm up.

The winningest individual in Australian Open history is Serbian star Novak Djokovic; he’s won 10 titles and is the overwhelming favorite to take an 11th in 2024. He’s so dominant that when he lost a set yesterday against teenager Dino Prizmic — not a match, just a set — it registered as alarming.

But there’s so much more to consider beyond Djokovic. Here are the storylines we’re keeping an eye on at the start of the Australian Open:

Prodigal players — There are many athletes at this Open who are returning after long absences. On the women’s side we’ve got Britain’s Emma Raducanu, Japan’s Naomi Osaka, Denmark’s Caroline Wozniacki, Ukraine’s Elina Svitolina and Germany’s Angelique Kerber all coming back after lengthy health-related breaks. Of these returning athletes, Osaka was the most eye-catching; she loves the Australian Open and won the whole thing in 2019 and 2021. Unfortunately, Osaka dropped her first-round match to France's Caroline Garcia, 6-4, 7-7 (2).

Keep an eye on Ukraine’s Svitolina; she took the ASB final last week over Wozniacki in some style and looks hungry to perform. She’ll be a fascinating one to watch in round two and beyond.

Unranked oddities — Jack Draper is the name on everyone’s lips at the Open: the unranked Brit is finally fulfilling his potential after a slow 2023 season. He made it all the way to the final in Adelaide last week and appears to be in great form, though he did end up losing that final to Jiri Lehecka in three sets. Still, not bad for an unranked player.

Draper’s opening match could generate some decent payouts; Bet365 is offering a special through which you can back him not only winning, but winning his first set 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2 at +550. We think that’s a steal given his Adelaide run, and if he continues performing at his current level, he won’t get odds like that again for a good long while.

A national treasure — When Coco Gauff won the U. S. Open in 2023, it didn’t feel like the end of her story, it felt like the start of something new. Plenty of talented athletes struggle to recapture major wins after bringing home their first, but we think Gauff is well-positioned to buck the trend and make a deep run in Australia. She had a productive offseason, won in Auckland, and blew through her Australian Open opener in straight sets.

Is Polish superstar Iga Swiatek the most likely Open winner by far? Yes. But can Gauff take the challenge to her? Absolutely! At +450 to win the whole thing, we’re throwing our weight behind our American hero this time around. 

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